Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is undoubtedly brilliant. But a glaring blind spot is his inability to learn from other people’s mistakes.
Musk’s on-and-off feud with President Trump is back on, now that Trump has signed a huge tax-cut package Musk objected to. Musk threatened to form a new political party if Congress passed the bill and Trump signed it, a threat Trump and his fellow Republicans ignored. Musk objects to the bill because it will add at least $4 trillion to the already monstrous national debt and because it shortchanges booming sectors such as green energy while boosting legacy industries such as fossil fuels.
The multibillionaire argues that Republicans and Democrats actually constitute a “uniparty” — depicted in one meme as a two-headed snake — that shares the common sin of perpetually pumping up the national debt. The “America Party” Musk plans to form would represent the “80% in the middle,” Musk said. Its policies would be centrist, and its prime mission would be getting the nation’s wayward finances back on sound footing.
Musk’s numbers are a bit off, but many voters will find his pitch compelling. Self-described independents now represent 43% of the electorate, the highest portion in Gallup polling that dates to 1988. That reflects growing disgust with both established parties. Musk is generally right that both parties are guilty of financially reckless tax cuts and spending hikes, relying on ever more borrowed money. Fed-up independents and centrists are the coveted “swing voters” who now determine virtually every presidential election outcome and many other state and local races as well.
Musk, however, will sooner or later learn what many other fed-up centrists know: Forming a meaningful third party in the US is almost impossibly difficult. Terry Haines of research firm Pangaea Policy calls Musk’s third-party bid an “almost-certain failed political gambit that won’t move the political needle and looks like a cross between a petty vanity project and a pick up toys and go home temper tantrum.”
Elon Musk speaks during a press conference with President Trump (not pictured) at the White House on May 30. (Reuters/Nathan Howard/File Photo/File Photo) ·REUTERS / Reuters
There’s a robust history of failed efforts to form centrist third parties in modern times. Ross Perot famously tried it in the 1990s, and while he created some populist buzz, he failed to win a single electoral vote in two presidential campaigns. Third-party efforts of the past three decades include the Reform, Libertarian, Green, and Constitution parties, along with No Labels and many lesser-knowns. If you don’t recognize any of those, well, see?
Musk is perhaps the world’s foremost startup expert, so maybe he thinks he will succeed where others have failed. Eh. Musk also thought his DOGE commission would be the first to meaningfully streamline government after dozens of prior attempts had failed. DOGE ran into the immovable object of Beltway political resistance and flopped within six months. Along the way, Musk’s bromance with Trump turned sour, with the two giant egos now engaged in a trolling war.
The US system of government simply leaves little turf for a third party to get much traction. As the Washington Post recently explained, the Electoral College’s winner-take-all system tends to snuff out small vote-getting efforts, and there’s no American tradition of multiparty coalition building as there is in many parliamentary systems. There are also elaborate rules for getting onto the ballot in every state that heavily favor the two entrenched parties.
Musk is also personally unpopular, with a favorable rating of around 37% and an unfavorable rating of around 55%. Negative views of Musk spiked after he became Trump’s government hatchet man, and his net approval rating, at -18%, is about 11 points worse than Trump’s. The centrist ideology Musk is touting is probably a lot more popular than Musk himself.
Even without a third party, however, Musk could wield outsized political influence — as he already did as Trump’s BFF for a few heady months. Musk’s next step is to be the agenda-setter rather than the rich donor funding somebody else’s agenda. And there’s already a model for how to do this, driven by other business titans more patient and politically savvy than the impulsive Musk.
The Koch brothers, David and Charles, built one of the most influential organizations in US politics largely while operating within the Republican Party. Money from the family conglomerate helped finance a well-organized network promoting limited government and free markets that helped foment the tea party takeover of Congress in 2010 and is deeply influential to this day. Big-money critics lambast the Koch network for buying political outcomes with financial wealth, yet it’s a model for what Musk seems to be trying to do.
Other big donors have used their wealth to build deep levels of influence within the established political parties. Some of the most effective donors on the Republican side include banking heir Timothy Mellon, casino magnate Miriam Adelson (and her deceased husband, Sheldon), Schlitz beer heir Richard Uihlein, and hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin. Democrats claim fewer big-money business backers but still enjoy lavish support from the likes of Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, venture capitalist Reid Hoffman, and every conservative’s favorite villain, hedge fund pioneer George Soros.
Even Michael Bloomberg, the finance billionaire who served part of his three terms as mayor of New York City as an independent, donates almost exclusively to Democratic causes. He switched from independent to Democrat in 2018, most likely because he was planning to run for president and knew he wouldn’t have a chance as an independent.
If Musk is serious about being an influential voice in US politics for years to come, the best thing would be to first recommit to the half-dozen businesses he runs, where shareholders, workers, and customers feel Musk’s political adventures are a painful distraction. Business is what he does best, and that should come first.
Musk could then form a Koch-style political operation with like-minded techno-libertarians that would establish basic principles and hire political sharks to turn them into reality. He already has a political action committee, called America PAC, that mainly served as a Trump-funding vehicle when Musk was his biggest donor in the 2024 race. The PAC seems to have been dormant lately, but it’s an obvious starting point for a new organization promoting Musk’s favored policies. PACs are crucial for raising and distributing funds, and money, of course, is the lifeblood of politics.
Money isn’t enough. Making common cause with like-minded allies is also essential. For all his billions, Musk would also need activists and dealmakers who know how to work the system in every state, district, or ward where he wants to make a difference. He could buy much of that expertise, but it could test Musk’s patience, since cash alone doesn’t win elections, and it can take years to build a well-run political machine.
Musk has hinted at going this direction. He says he’ll tilt some congressional races in 2026 by using “extremely concentrated force at a precise location on the battlefield.” That suggests picking a handful of House or Senate incumbents he hopes to defeat, finding challengers able to beat them in a primary or general election, funding those candidates and providing the support they need to navigate the electoral process.
Much of that infrastructure already exists — in the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk could piggyback on that, candidate by candidate, without wasting the resources on a whole new party likely to fail. Musk may think he has to single-handedly pioneer every innovation that interests him, but sometimes there’s a playbook showing him how to get halfway down the field.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.
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